AG: four filters pass, all riding silver prices

AG: four filters pass, all riding silver prices

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG) is Pass #21 — all four hard filters cleared. Market cap $8.31B, TTM revenue +113.29%, PEG 0.55 (Finviz single-source), OCF $707M positive. The core finding: this growth is almost entirely silver-price-driven (+161% realized price YoY) rather than volume growth (-4% production). Balance sheet is the cleanest in the series (net cash $826.76M, Altman Z-Score 3.36, Debt/EBITDA 0.39×). Six analysts average a $26.88 target (+59% upside). Key catalysts: Jerritt Canyon gold mine restart, Santo Niño discovery, sixth consecutive silver market deficit. Key risks: commodity-price sensitivity (Beta 2.07), 100% Mexico production concentration, CEO insider selling, and Gatos merger dilution (+47% shares).

Small-Cap Growth Pick: Revenue +30%, PEG < 1
June 12, 2026 · 9:25 PM
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Pass #21 in this channel's daily small-cap screen. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG) is a Canadian silver and gold miner with operations across four producing mines in Mexico and a dormant gold mine in Nevada being restarted. Market cap ~$8.31B, TTM revenue growth +113.29%, PEG 0.55 (Finviz), operating cash flow $707.06M TTM. All four hard filters pass. 1 2
Three things belong at the top of this note, not the bottom.
Caveat 1 — price-driven, not volume-driven growth. The +113% TTM revenue gain is almost entirely a function of silver prices rising, not First Majestic producing more silver. In Q1 2026, the company's realized silver price jumped +161% year-over-year (from $33.10 to $86.35 per ounce) while silver production actually fell 4% (3.55M oz vs. 3.70M oz). The same dynamic holds across the prior four quarters. The $1.49B TTM revenue figure looks like an operational ramp; it is closer to a commodity leverage trade. 3
Caveat 2 — PEG sourced from Finviz only. StockAnalysis shows PEG as n/a for AG — standard for Canadian foreign filers (AG reports on TSX, not under SEC domestic registrant rules). The 0.55 figure comes from Finviz, computed as Forward P/E ~16.05 ÷ EPS next-5-year growth estimate of 28.97%. A manual cross-check using Forward P/E 15.81 ÷ 3-year EPS growth 30.33% yields 0.52, which is consistent directionally. But 28–30% EPS growth assumes silver prices stay in their current range — if spot silver reverts toward $35 (where it started 2025), the growth rate assumption collapses with it. 2
Caveat 3 — the stock is down 30% in a month. As of June 11, 2026, AG sits at $16.92 — -30.11% from a month ago and -47.18% from its 52-week high of $32.03. Silver spot has pulled back from $121.79 at its 52-week peak to $66.85 today. This is the AG pattern: maximum torque in both directions. 1
Current price: $16.92 (June 11, 2026 close). Market cap: ~$8.31B.

Hard filter check

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FilterThresholdReported valueSource(s)Status
Market cap< $10B$8.31B (SA) / $8.35B (Finviz)StockAnalysis, Finviz✅ Pass
TTM revenue growth> 30%+113.29%StockAnalysis✅ Pass ⚠️
PEG ratio< 1.00.55 (Finviz only; SA: n/a)Finviz; manual: ~0.52✅ Pass ⚠️
Operating cash flowPositive$707.06M TTMStockAnalysis✅ Pass
The ⚠️ flags on revenue growth and PEG are not disqualifiers — this note uses them to mean "the number clears the bar but the mechanism that produced it warrants scrutiny." Revenue growth at 113% sounds like a company ripping through market share; in AG's case it means silver went from ~$33/oz to ~$86/oz in a year. The PEG of 0.55 is real, but the denominator (EPS growth rate) is a forward estimate built on silver prices staying elevated.
FCF note: Free cash flow of $505.28M TTM is genuine positive territory — OCF of $707M minus capital expenditures of ~$202M. The CapEx figure is intentionally elevated: First Majestic invested $213M–$236M in 2026 guidance, including $75M for the Jerritt Canyon gold mine restart in Nevada and mill expansions at Santa Elena and Los Gatos. This is not distressed spending; the company ended Q1 2026 with $984.84M in cash and a record treasury position of $1,128.6M (including $143.8M restricted cash). 3 4

What First Majestic does

First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX: AG / NYSE: AG / FSE: FMV) is a Vancouver-based silver and gold miner founded in 1979 by CEO Keith Neumeyer. It currently operates four producing mines — Santa Elena (Sonora, Mexico), San Dimas (Durango/Sinaloa, Mexico), Los Gatos (70% joint venture, Chihuahua, Mexico), and La Encantada (Coahuila, Mexico) — plus the Jerritt Canyon gold mine in Nevada, which has been on care-and-maintenance since March 2023 and is now being restarted.
Los Gatos is the newest of the four, added through First Majestic's all-stock acquisition of Gatos Silver, Inc. in January 2025 for approximately $970M. That transaction added the 70% JV interest in the Los Gatos mine complex and drove the +47.15% year-over-year expansion in shares outstanding from ~336M to ~494M. The integration was described by Neumeyer as "successful and seamless" by April 2026, and Los Gatos contributed 1,183,089 ounces of silver in Q1 2026 alone. 5 3
Beyond the mines, First Majestic owns First Mint, LLC, a retail silver products operation that sells bullion bars, coins, and commemorative rounds directly to the public at low premiums. It is a niche revenue stream but also a differentiating signal: this is a company that believes its product is worth marketing to consumers directly, not just selling into spot markets.
FY2026 production guidance: 13.0–14.4M oz silver, 116,000–129,000 oz gold, plus zinc and lead by-products from Los Gatos. This is modestly lower than FY2025's record 15.4M oz silver — management intentionally cut ore cut-off grades to improve economics at prevailing metal prices rather than chase volume. 4

Five quarters of revenue and earnings

The financial transformation of First Majestic over the past five quarters is stark — but the driver is almost entirely commodity prices, not operational improvement.
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QuarterRevenueYoY growthEPS (Basic)Adj. EPS
Q1 2025$243.9M+130.1%$0.01n/a
Q2 2025$264.2M+94.1%$0.11n/a
Q3 2025$285.1M+95.1%$0.06n/a
Q4 2025$463.9M+169.2%$0.17$0.30
Q1 2026$476.7M+95.4%$0.26$0.31
Q1 2026 is the headline quarter: record revenue of $476.7M, record mine operating earnings of $266.6M (+318% YoY), EBITDA of $306.8M (+192% YoY), and free cash flow of $223.5M after $95.5M in cash taxes. The adjusted EPS of $0.31 came in well above consensus of approximately $0.18 — a meaningful beat driven by silver prices outperforming analyst models. 7
The critical context: Q1 2026's 95% revenue growth came with silver production down 4% year-over-year. The realized silver price was $86.35/oz, up 161% from $33.10/oz a year earlier. Strip out price and the operational story is flat to slightly down. FY2024 revenue was $560.6M on 8.3M oz silver at ~$24/oz; FY2025 was $1.26B on 15.4M oz at higher prices (Gatos acquisition added volume). FY2025 silver volume was up 84%, but the acquisition closed January 2025 — so the organic volume trend is obscured by M&A. 3
Management provided FY2026 analyst consensus: revenue $1.67B (+32.74% vs FY2025 $1.26B) and adjusted EPS $1.06 (+130% vs FY2025 $0.46). Those numbers assume silver prices averaging somewhere in the $70–$80/oz range for the rest of the year. 8

Valuation

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PEG decomposed:
InputValueSource / notes
Trailing P/E28.83×StockAnalysis (27.04× per iTick)
Forward P/E15.81×StockAnalysis (16.05× per Finviz)
EPS 5-year growth estimate28.97%Finviz analyst estimate
EPS 3-year growth rate30.33%StockAnalysis
PEG (Finviz method)0.55Forward P/E ~16.05 ÷ 28.97%
Manual check (forward / 3Y growth)~0.5215.81 ÷ 30.33%
FY2026E EPS consensus$1.06+130% from FY2025 $0.46 adjusted
The Forward P/E of ~16× looks reasonable for a company growing earnings 130% year-over-year — except that "130% earnings growth" is a function of silver prices being 4× higher than two years ago. If silver reverts toward $40–$45/oz, the FY2026 EPS consensus of $1.06 likely compresses to $0.40–$0.50, and the forward P/E at the current price re-rates to 34–42× — expensive for a miner not growing volume.
The trailing P/E of 28.83× reflects the same dynamic from the other direction: TTM earnings are elevated by peak silver prices, making the trailing multiple look compressed against historical miner P/E ranges of 40–60× in low-price environments.
The EV/EBITDA of 9.91× is actually the cleanest valuation anchor: it uses current enterprise value (~$7.91B) against TTM EBITDA that silver prices have genuinely made real. If EBITDA is sustainable at $700M+ — which requires silver staying near current levels — 10× is a fair entry point for a miner with net cash, zero debt stress, and an intact production base. 1

Balance sheet

MetricValueContext
Cash & equivalents$984.84M+$191.4M QoQ, record level
Restricted cash$143.8M
Total treasury$1,128.6MCompany historical high
Total debt$314.04MLong-term $243.6M + short-term $53.8M + leases $16.7M
Net cash (excl. restricted)$670.79M
Net cash (incl. restricted)$826.76M ($1.67/share)StockAnalysis aggregated
Current ratio2.73$1,331M current assets / $488M current liabilities
Debt / equity0.09×Very low leverage
Debt / EBITDA0.39×
Interest coverage27.11×Ample
Altman Z-Score3.36Above 3.0 safe zone
Piotroski F-Score6Above median
The balance sheet is genuinely strong. An Altman Z-Score of 3.36 places AG in the safe zone (>3.0), and Debt/EBITDA of 0.39× means the company could theoretically repay all outstanding debt in less than five months at current earnings rates. The net cash position of $826.76M gives First Majestic the flexibility to fund Jerritt Canyon, complete the Santa Elena mill expansion, and maintain its 2%-of-quarterly-revenues dividend policy without touching external capital markets.
This is a meaningful contrast to the leveraged E&P balance sheets common in the series. AG carries no debt refinancing risk, no negative working capital, and no immediate liquidity concern — though it should be noted this clean balance sheet was built during a period of historically high silver prices. 3

Growth catalysts

1. Silver market: sixth consecutive structural deficit. The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026 projects a 46.3M ounce structural deficit for 2026 — 15% wider than the 40.3M oz deficit in 2025. Above-ground silver stocks have shed a cumulative 762M oz since 2021 to bridge prior-year deficits. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a $81/oz average silver price for 2026, and silver briefly touched $100/oz in late January 2026 — the first time in history. The US government formally classified silver as a critical mineral in March 2026. 10 11
Industrial fabrication (the largest end-use category) is expected to drop 3% to 639.6M oz in 2026, but coin and bar demand is projected to jump 18%. The deficit dynamic that drove silver from ~$29/oz at the start of 2025 to a high of $121.79 at the 52-week peak is structural — driven by solar panel demand, EV battery connections, and the absence of scalable mine supply response. None of that changes overnight.
2. Jerritt Canyon gold mine restart. On April 2, 2026, First Majestic announced a formal restart plan for Jerritt Canyon in Nevada — one of only three permitted gold roasting facilities in the state. 12 The mine operated from 1981 to 2023, producing approximately 9.85M oz gold over its history, and has been on care-and-maintenance since March 2023. Current mineral resources: 4.1M oz Measured & Indicated gold + 3.7M oz Inferred gold, across 30,821 hectares with ~85% of the land mass still unexplored.
The restart plan calls for $75M investment in 2026 (split across surface infrastructure, underground preparation, exploration drilling, and a Stantec-led pre-feasibility study expected in Q4 2026), with targeted production restart in H2 2027. Neumeyer framed the rationale directly: "With the successful and seamless integration of Gatos Silver now complete, we are focusing our attention on restarting Jerritt Canyon. Jerritt Canyon represents a rare and compelling opportunity to generate meaningful shareholder value." 12
Jerritt Canyon adds a US-domiciled gold asset to a portfolio currently concentrated 100% in Mexico. That jurisdiction diversification has real option value — particularly given ongoing concerns about cartel activity near Mexican mining operations.
3. Reserve and resource growth. The company's 2025 mineral resource update (effective December 31, 2025) showed significant gains: Measured & Indicated resources up 50% year-over-year to 652.8M silver-equivalent ounces, and Inferred resources up 69% to 592.3M oz. The Santa Elena mine contributed a 105% YoY increase in Inferred resources, driven by the Santo Niño discovery — a new deposit with a maiden Inferred resource of 4.1M tonnes containing 27.4M AgEq oz (9.0M oz Ag + 210,000 oz Au), grading 68 g/t Ag and 1.57 g/t Au. 13
Reserve replacement at a growing scale is the metric that separates miners with longevity from those depleting their way to irrelevance. First Majestic not only replaced what it mined in 2025 but added significantly to the resource base — CEO Neumeyer called it "an extraordinary chapter in First Majestic's growth story." Proven and probable reserves are 184.8M AgEq oz (+4% YoY). 13
4. Gatos Silver integration complete; Los Gatos throughput increasing. The all-stock Gatos acquisition closed January 16, 2025 — adding the 70% JV interest in Los Gatos (Chihuahua, Mexico) for approximately $970M. By Q1 2026, Los Gatos was milling 227,379 tonnes on a 70% basis (+17% YoY) with improving recoveries. The mine is targeting 4,000 tpd sustained throughput in H2 2026, up from ~3,570 tpd currently, which will add incremental silver and base-metal by-product revenue. 3
The Motley Fool characterized the timing as "perfectly timed" — acquiring Gatos just before silver's 2025 price breakout. Neumeyer put it this way: "The acquisition and successful integration of Gatos, improved operational performance at San Dimas and La Encantada, combined with world-class discoveries at Santa Elena could not have come at a better time." 5
5. Dividend hike. Effective January 1, 2026, First Majestic raised its dividend policy from 1% to 2% of net quarterly revenues. The Q1 2026 dividend was $0.0171 per share — approximately 280% higher year-over-year — paid out May 29, 2026. The current annual yield is approximately 0.21%, which is small in absolute terms but reflects the company's commitment to returning capital as silver prices enable it. 4

Key risks

RiskSeverityImpact path
Silver price reversion🔴 HighQ1 2026 realized price was $86.35/oz; silver is at $66.85 today and was $35 in early 2025. Revenue scales nearly 1:1 with the realized price. A return to $40/oz would cut revenues by ~54% from Q1 pace.
Mexico jurisdiction🔴 HighAll four producing mines are in Mexico. Benzinga reported in February 2026 on cartel activity threatening Mexican silver mines. Mexican peso strengthened 14% vs. USD YoY in Q1 2026, raising reported AISC. Regulatory change risk is real in a resource-nationalist political environment.
Share dilution from Gatos merger🟡 MediumShares outstanding increased +47.15% YoY to 493.77M through the all-stock Gatos acquisition in January 2025. Per-share metrics are permanently diluted by roughly one-third relative to pre-merger.
CEO insider selling🟡 MediumCEO Keith Neumeyer sold approximately 212,500 shares for ~$4.3M+ in January–February 2026. Multiple other insiders (Parmar, Polman, Deal) also sold in early 2026. Minor insider buying in the $3,000–$20,000 range is present but does not offset the dollar value of sales. Insider ownership sits at 1.14% — low for a founder-led mining company.
Cost inflation — AISC rising🟡 MediumAll-in sustaining cost per AgEq oz rose from $19.24 in Q1 2025 to $29.76 in Q1 2026. The increase reflects higher royalties (royalties scale with silver price), production bonuses, and the stronger MXN. The AISC margin of $52.24/oz in Q1 2026 looks wide, but if silver falls to $40/oz and AISC stays near $30/oz, the margin compresses to ~$10/oz — still positive but near the break-even sensitivity point for profitability.
Jerritt Canyon execution risk🟡 MediumThe restart is based on internal estimates, not a completed pre-feasibility study (Stantec's study is expected Q4 2026). Restarting a gold mine idle since March 2023 carries operational, environmental permitting, and workforce-ramp risks that are inherent to care-and-maintenance restarts.
High effective tax rate🟢 Low-mediumEffective tax rate of 41.97% — unusually high by mining-sector norms. $254.74M in income taxes were paid on a TTM basis. This is partly structural (Mexican royalties treated as taxes) and partly a function of the current high-income environment.
The silver price risk deserves precise framing. AG's AISC in Q1 2026 was $29.76/oz. The 52-week low for silver spot was $35.20. At $35 silver and $30 AISC, First Majestic generates roughly $5/oz margin — versus the $52/oz margin it earned in Q1 2026. That $47/oz compression translates to roughly a 90% decline in per-ounce earnings, on ~3.5M oz quarterly production, or an annualized earnings swing of approximately $650M. The high-leverage structure that makes AG attractive at $66 silver is the same structure that is punishing at $35 silver.

Price action and technicals

Current price: $16.92 (June 11, 2026). YTD: +1.56%. 52-week range: $7.74–$32.03.
The stock reached $32.03 at its 52-week peak — somewhere near the January–February 2026 period when silver was approaching $100/oz. It has since lost 47% from that high as silver pulled back from those levels. The RSI(14) sits at 38.04 — approaching but not yet at the conventional 30 oversold threshold. The 50-day moving average is $20.37 (price is 16.9% below it), and the 200-day moving average is $17.86 (price is 5.3% below it). Short interest is modest at 21.29M shares (4.31% of float), with a 1.32-day cover ratio. Beta is 2.07 on a 5-year basis — AG moves roughly twice as much as the broad market in either direction. 1 2
The ATR(14) of $1.30 on a $16.92 stock means typical daily moves exceed 7% — this is a stock where a 3-day silver rally can recover a month of losses, and a 3-day silver selloff can do the reverse.

Analyst consensus: Moderate Buy, $26–$28 average target

FirmAnalystRatingPrice targetDate
H.C. WainwrightHeiko IhleBuy$30.75May 12, 2026
BMO Capital MarketsKevin O'HalloranBuy$25.12Mar 24, 2026
National BankAlex TerentiewBuy$22.00Oct 6, 2025
ATB CormarkRichard GrayHold$25.84May 13, 2026
ScotiabankEric WinmillHold$23.00May 13, 2026
TD SecuritiesBuyOct 8, 2025
Consensus: Buy / Moderate Buy (6 analysts, StockAnalysis; 4 analysts past 3 months, TipRanks). Average target: $26.88 (StockAnalysis), $26.18 (TipRanks, 4 analysts), $27.58 (Finviz). That implies +55% to +59% upside from the current $16.92. The range runs from Scotiabank's conservative $23.00 to H.C. Wainwright's $30.75. 8 15
BMO Capital upgraded AG from Market Perform to Outperform on March 24, 2026 — citing it as a top Materials pick alongside Franco-Nevada. H.C. Wainwright's Heiko Ihle (78.95% success rate and +109.95% average return on AG calls over 2 years) raised his target from $30 to $30.75 immediately after Q1 2026 results on May 12, 2026. 15
The rating trend across the April–June 2026 period has been moving toward Buy: from a 2 Buy / 6 Hold mix in February to 4–5 Buy / 5–6 Hold as of June. No Sell ratings in the current cohort.
Q1 2026 actual adjusted EPS of $0.31 beat consensus of approximately $0.18 by 72% — a meaningful beat that drove the post-earnings analyst upgrades. The Q2 2026 consensus is $0.18 EPS and $432M revenue, implying analysts expect a modestly weaker sequential quarter as silver prices have come off Q1 levels.

Insider and institutional ownership

Institutional ownership: 50.41% across 496 institutions. The top holders are dominated by precious metals ETFs: Van Eck Associates (7.70%, primarily via GDX/GDXJ ETFs), Tidal Investments (4.27%), and Mirae Asset Global Investments (3.75%). Key ETF channels include Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ, 20.91M shares), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX, 20.34M shares), Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL, 12.53M shares), and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ, 11.33M shares). Any significant rally or pullback in silver-sector ETF flows will therefore directly affect AG's trading volume and price. 16
Insider ownership: 1.14% (5.6M shares). CEO Keith Neumeyer personally holds 4,732,882 shares (0.96%). First Majestic is a Canadian foreign private issuer (FPI) — it reports insider transactions to SEDI (Canada's equivalent of SEC Form 4) rather than the SEC, so the data is accessible but less prominently surfaced in US tools.
The insider selling pattern in early 2026 is a notable data point: Neumeyer sold approximately 212,500+ shares for ~$4.3M between January and February 2026, with multiple other officers (Parmar, Polman, Deal) also reducing positions. Simply Wall St notes that by number of transactions, insiders bought more than they sold in the most recent 3-month window — but in dollar value, the sales from the January–February period dwarf the minor purchases. 14
The combination of 1.14% insider ownership and CEO selling near the 52-week high does not disqualify AG as a pass — but it is a legitimate signal to weigh against the analyst consensus and the silver structural deficit story.

Upcoming catalysts

CatalystExpected timingWhat to watch
Q2 2026 earningsEarly August 2026 (est.)Consensus: EPS $0.18, revenue $432M; silver was ~$70–$90/oz in Q2 vs. $86.35/oz realized in Q1 — sequential comparison matters
H2 2026 guidance update (Jerritt Canyon)July 2026Revised capital budget for the restart; any delay or cost escalation is a headwind
Jerritt Canyon pre-feasibility studyQ4 2026Stantec completion; this is the first independent economic validation of the restart investment
Santa Elena mill expansion to 3,500 tpdH2 2026Operational completion adds throughput and offsets the guided volume decline vs. FY2025
Los Gatos throughput to 4,000 tpdH2 2026Sustained rate; by-product zinc, lead, copper credits improve net silver costs
Silver spot price directionOngoing52-week range $35.20–$121.79 tells the whole story — the stock is a silver price proxy
Annual General Meeting resultsPassed June 10, 2026All items passed; no governance overhang

The bottom line on Pass #21

First Majestic Silver clears all four hard filters, but it is the most commodity-sensitive pass in this series to date. The 113% TTM revenue growth is real in dollar terms; it is almost entirely a function of silver going from ~$33/oz to ~$86/oz over 12 months, not operational improvement. The balance sheet is the cleanest in the series — net cash of $826.76M, Altman Z-Score of 3.36, Debt/EBITDA of 0.39× — and that cash cushion provides genuine downside protection.
The analytical question is whether silver's structural deficit (sixth consecutive year, 46.3M oz forecast gap, 762M oz of cumulative above-ground stock drawdown since 2021) keeps prices structurally elevated, or whether they mean-revert as demand cools and above-ground supply adjustments occur. J.P. Morgan forecasting $81/oz and the Silver Institute projecting a widening deficit for 2026 represent the bull case. The stock already being down 30% from a month ago at $66.85/oz silver represents the market's current verdict that $86/oz was not where silver settles.
At $16.92 — 47% off its 52-week high, RSI approaching oversold, with $1.67/share in net cash — AG offers leverage to any resumption of the silver bull thesis. Analysts with an average target of $26.88 (+59%) and a recently upgraded BMO sitting at $25.12 see a legitimate discount. The risks are not existential (no debt crisis, no reserve depletion, no single customer dependency), but they are structural: Mexico concentration, silver-price sensitivity with Beta of 2.07, and a CEO reducing his own position near the top.
Investors who think the silver structural deficit continues to tighten and the industrial demand story (solar, EVs, critical mineral designation) holds will find a company with scale, clean finances, and three organic catalysts (Jerritt Canyon, Santo Niño, Los Gatos throughput) that don't require silver to rally further to deliver value. Investors who think silver at $66 is still historically stretched will prefer to wait for a clearer bottom.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.

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